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حسابداری و مالی::
استقراض بیشازحد
But the conceptual framework remained the emerging markets and in-country over-borrowing.
The aim is to provide a forwardlooking framework that combines external factors affecting creditworthiness (or the indicators of over-lending) and the domestic imbalances and structural fundamentals associated with over-borrowing: In keeping with the direction of analysis in the preceding chapters, from the outside in, the first group of indicators tracks the external push factors.
The broad categories of these indicators are listed below: 1 Push factors driving over-lending and cyclical indicators Trends in global financial centres (US, UK, EU, China, Japan) International interest rates and interbank rates International cross-exchange rate relevant to the region Credit growth in systemically important economies Market volatility indicators Rate of change of commodity prices and asset prices Electoral cycle Global leading indicators (OECD, Baltic Dry indexes) 2 External vulnerabilities Trade concentrations, exports and imports Access to capital markets Savings and foreign-payments imbalances Exchange-rate imbalances External debt and liquidity indicators 3 Fundamentals causing over-borrowing Sovereign and policy effectiveness Sovereign and fiscal stability indicators, contingent liabilities Monetary stability, currency regime and currency status Economic policy risks Economic structure GDP growth, volatility and structure Economic role of the state Financial sector structure, size relative to GDP Demographic trends Competitiveness and productivity trends Political and institutional risk Domestic political stability Exposure to regional or geostrategic risks Institutional structure Infrastructure and business environment
At the global level, efforts to manage pressures that can cause over-lending and over-borrowing have generated a growing number of international organisations tasked with increased regulation, supervision and international co-ordination of national policies.
Focus on the big picture and look for the causes of over-lending as well as over-borrowing.
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